Tobacco companies are exaggerating the scale of the UK’s illegal cigarette market to lobby against tobacco taxes and tougher smoking legislation, claims a report from ASH.

The number of illicit cigarettes smoked in the UK has fallen by almost 90 per cent since 2000, the charity states, despite cigarette prices more than tripling over the same period. While HMRC estimates that around 12 per cent of UK cigarettes are illicit, a KPMG report from June commissioned by Philip Morris International puts the figure at 45 per cent.
‘Exaggerated claims’ about the black market and legitimate concerns about organised crime involvement in the illicit tobacco trade are being used by the industry to undermine taxation and new legislation designed to create a ‘smokefree generation’, says ASH, with tobacco companies repeatedly warning that higher taxes and tougher laws will lead to a dramatic rise in illegal sales. Organised crime involvement in the illicit tobacco trade has led to violent turf wars in Australia and elsewhere.
The KPMG report says that more than 22bn manufactured cigarettes were smoked in the UK last year – a figure ASH says is ‘substantially more’ than estimates drawn from national surveys. Industry-funded reports have also been criticised for perceived weaknesses such as their reliance on ‘discarded cigarette pack surveys and unverified tobacco industry information’, it states, raising ‘serious questions about the reliability of research commissioned by tobacco manufacturers’.
A separate document from Japan Tobacco International claimed that more than 60 per cent of hand-rolled tobacco used in the UK was illicit, compared to HMRC’s estimate of less than 20 per cent. Claims from industry-funded reports have been ‘widely reported’ in the media as well as repeated in Parliament during debates on the Tobacco and Vapes Act, ASH adds.
According to figures released earlier this month, the proportion of current smokers in the UK last year fell below 10 per cent for the first time. The UK’s progress in cutting smoking rates is the result of ‘sustained tobacco tax increases, effective enforcement and measures to reduce smoking’, states ASH.

‘For years tobacco companies have been telling politicians and the public that Britain’s illegal tobacco market is spiralling out of control,’ said chief executive Hazel Cheeseman. ‘The official figures tell a very different story. Illegal cigarette consumption has fallen by almost 90 per cent since 2000, even as tobacco taxes have risen and smoking rates have tumbled. The tobacco industry has a long history of using the threat of illicit trade to argue against measures that would reduce smoking. Now we are seeing industry-funded research suggesting a black market three times larger than official estimates, with those claims finding their way into newspapers and parliamentary debates.’
That didn’t mean the problem had ‘gone away’, she said, with her organisation calling for stronger powers to close shops involved in illegal sales, the introduction of a comprehensive tobacco retail licensing scheme, and better coordination between police and trading standards.
‘Criminals are still profiting from illicit tobacco, and we need strong enforcement to stop them,’ she continued. ‘But we should not allow tobacco companies to use exaggerated claims about the black market to frighten politicians away from policies that save lives. Britain has shown that you can raise tobacco taxes, reduce smoking and drive down illegal tobacco sales at the same time.’
Beyond the headlines: the reality of illicit tobacco in the UK available here

